WORLD CUP: Geek Talks America, Part II

Early Outlook

4 Reasons for Optimism

1. We're not playing in Europe.  Since Italy '90 Team America has a sparkling record of 0 wins, 8 losses and 1 draw on European soil in the World Cup, with a stellar 5 goals for, 19 against and a whole 0 clean sheets (football speak for shutout).  Away from Europe: a much more respectable 11 goals for, 13 against in 3 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws.

2. Elevation, the great equalizer?  Environmental elements typically play into the strengths of the lesser skilled teams. Royal Bafokeng is 5,700 ft. above sea level (about 500 ft. higher than Denver) which means the US might be able to graft a point from their opening match against England.  Team America probably can't outplay them, but they can be fit enough to outlast them.  England, by the way haven't played an official match more than 1000 ft. above sea level since a 2005 friendly against Argentina in Geneva (1200 ft.).  The Americans?  See point 3.

3. 5 games under the belt.  The Confederations Cup last summer gave the US at least a taste of the environment, atmosphere (albeit a sterilized version) and yes, the altitude challenges that England and Slovenia haven't had.  Familiarity with the culture, diet and venues has to count as an intangible advantage...  the vuvuzelas alone take 45 minutes to get used to.

4. 1950.  In case you hadn't heard, this happened.

4 Reasons for Pessimism:

1. Eastern Curse.  American record against Eastern European nations in the World Cup since 1990: 5 played, 0 wins, 5 losses... '90 Czechoslovakia 1-5; '94 Romania 1-3; '98 Yugoslavia 0-1; '02 Poland 1-3; '06 Czech Republic 0-3.  That's 3 goals for, 15 against.  Slovenia is a Balkan country, not an Eastern European one, right?  Maybe?  Please?

2. Project 2010: Failure.  An initiative started by the US Soccer Federation in 1998, Project 2010 was designed to develop world class talent by this upcoming World Cup.  Under its umbrella, the Generation Adidas program and the Bradenton Academy were supposed to give Team America a platform to spot and develop talent.  Thus far, the program has produced a few success stories: Carlos Bocanegra, Clint Dempsey, Michael Bradley and Tim Howard all got their starts via Generation Adidas; however, the leading lights never quite materialized.  Notoriously, Freddy Adu, for so long the future of American soccer, is now selling used cars somewhere off the Maryland beltway, Bobby Convey still looks like a 13 year old boy, Eddie Johnson has continued his precipitous regression; I think he played against my Monday night coed rec team last week, I'm not sure.  Budding talent like Jozy Altidore and Omar Gonzalez will have to mature quickly if they are to contribute next summer.

3. Algeria's got balls.  You've just lost on the road to your most bitter rival (who are more talented and have more resources than you) and now you have to play a one game playoff against the same team with everything at stake... and oh, you'll be playing this one game playoff in Sudan.  How big are your balls if you come through this scenario?  Huge.  Absolutely huge.  Pound for pound, the Algerians should have stood no chance against African champions Egypt in their one game playoff in Darfur, but they'll be the ones facing the US in the final group match.  Do the Americans have the same testicular fortitude?  Well, they've never won at Mexico and they've never won at Costa Rica--the two most pressure filled environments in CONCACAF.

4. Don Fabio.  Around this time two years ago, England were imploding against Croatia, allowing the Russians to slip into Euro 2008.  Since: a near perfect qualification campaign with 9 wins and a single loss that came after they had sealed their ticket to Africa.  A number of high profile friendlies have yielded only two setbacks, to the world's number 1 and 2 teams, Brazil and Spain.  Fabio Capello vs. Bob Bradley... I'm sorry, but that's just not very fair.