Wednesday, December 23, 2009

PREMIER LEAGUE On the Man City saga

Well, "it's all happening now" as they like to say in the Premier League.  I'm pretty sure that's British for "the shit has hit the fan," which it most certainly has. Manchester United and Chelsea are hemorrhaging points, Liverpool fans continue to follow Rafa into the abyss and Bobby Zamora is the league's hottest striker.  So many unlikely permutations at once are usually the setup for a doomsday scenario; it’s like the soccer version of 2012.  

Despite such improbabilities, these events have been eclipsed by what’s happening at Manchester City.  Directly after Saturday's 4-3 win against Sunderland, a game that aptly summarized at once both the potential and frailties of the current City squad, it was announced that manager Mark Hughes had been relieved of his duties.

Former Lazio and Inter Milan boss Roberto Mancini stepped into the vacancy with immediate effect.  Despite reports of Manchester City having struck a deal with the Italian weeks ago, chairman Gary Cook vehemently denied that Hughes had been a dead man walking for weeks, claiming that they had only just arrived at the decision after last Wednesday's 3-0 embarrassment at the hands of Tottenham. 

Regardless of the timing, the important point is that the Welshman is out the door.  After starting the season with a return of 16 points from their first 6 matches, they only managed 13 over the last 11, a return deemed unacceptable by City’s oil rich owners who see a Champions League spot as a minimum requirement this season. 

Was Mark Hughes the right man for the job?  In a word, no, as his record as City manager certainly suggests.  A tenth place finish last season has been followed up by another inconsistent campaign, 8th so far with only 2 wins in their last 11 games.  What’s even more disconcerting about such a paltry return is the opposition it’s come against.  A home win versus Chelsea was the silver lining in a bleak run of results; City could only manage to draw against the likes of Burnley, Hull, Birmingham, Wigan and Bolton before being thrashed at Spurs.   Not exactly the world beating style of results that the massive cash injection was expected to yield.  

But it’s more damning for Hughes than simple results.  The more crucial assignment of this campaign was to lay the groundwork for a competitive side.  Few can argue that Hughes’ dealings in the transfer market have been fiscally or strategically sound (note that most coaches in England are also their clubs’ general managers, making them accountable for personnel decisions). 

Center backs Joleon Lescott and Kolo Toure were brought in at an expense of an estimated £40m; the pair have yet to yield the desired effect.  City have given up 3 or more goals on 5 occasions this season (Man Utd, Burnley, Bolton, Spurs and Sunderland) including twice in the last week.  Comparatively, the traditional “Big Four” teams combined have yielded that amount 7 times this season.  Suspect goalkeeping and injuries at the back have victimized each of those teams, but up until now, City have been able to regularly play more or less the same back four anchored by the League’s in form shot-stopper, Shay Given.  Despite the stability, they’ve only kept 1 clean sheet in the last 11.  Meanwhile, former Man City captain and now Aston Villa defender, Richard Dunne is enjoying the form of his career.  With him at the helm of their defense, Villa haven’t conceded a goal in the last 360 minutes of Premier League soccer. 

Problems exist further up the pitch as well.  Neither Vincent Company nor Nigel de Jong (at £17m purchase when they could have had him for free five months later) have managed to establish themselves in defensive midfield. 

In attack, over £120m have been spent on Tevez, Adebayor, Robinho and Santa Cruz, but their most productive player remains Craig Bellamy, an afterthought in the squad heading into this season.  Hughes never managed to get the best out of the mercurial talents of Robinho and Emmanuel Adebayor stopped scoring after he began to the show the type of attitude that Arsenal found so readily dispensable, despite his undeniable gifts.  Last year’s best player, Stephen Ireland, has spent most of this season sulking his way across the pitch with minimal effect. 

Apparently, the egos of such valuable talent have proven too much for Hughes who never seemed to introduce any cohesion to the Eastlands club.  One imagines that might require a more demonstrative personality considering the price tags being mentioned. 

All of that being said, the question of whether this decision, at this point in time, was a good one is a very different matter altogether.  Despite all of Hughes’ deficiencies, the short and the long-term aims of the club might have been thrown into serious jeopardy by Chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak’s decision to go with Roberto Mancini. 

With the January transfer window only a week away, Mancini will only have two match days to assess the squad and determine the areas where reinforcement is required.  The current squad has welcomed 9 new players over the last year, all of whom have featured regularly this season (Toure, Lescott, de Jong, Barry, Tevez, Santa Cruz, Adebayor, Sylvinho, Given).  They are, for all intents and purposes, an entirely new team, one who has only had four months to settle in with each other.  Mancini’s initial comments indicate that these total strangers will have to make room for even more new faces. 

This open door player policy flies directly against the models used by the proven Premier League sides.  Manchester United have only introduced two new players to regular first team roles over the last two seasons (Berbatov and Valencia); Chelsea, only three (Ivanovic, Deco, Anelka); and Arsenal, three (Arshavin, Vermaelen, Nasri).  By this spring, Manchester City, meanwhile, will be completely unrecognizable from their 2008 squad.  If Stephen Ireland doesn’t regain his form, Micah Richards might be the only holdover from the pre-billions era. 

The more daunting transition won’t be on the pitch, however.  Roberto Mancini’s experience with the English game is limited to only four appearances for Leicester City in the 2001 Premier League season.  Moreover, he doesn’t speak English.  This situation mirrors that of another highly rated foreign manager who tried to make inroads on British shores.  In 2007, Juande Ramos had just come off the back of a second consecutive UEFA Cup winning campaign when he took over Martin Jol’s seat at the head of Tottenham Hotspurs.  Just like City this year, there had been massive squad investment at Spurs the preceding summer.  Expectations were stratospheric.  And, just like City, after a wobbly start, their manager bitterly made way for a heralded foreign tactician (who spoke not a word of English) after much speculation to that effect.

Results were mixed.  Ramos did lead Spurs to their first trophy since 1991, but it was, after all, only the Carling Cup.  The situation quickly denigrated thereafter with a series of lackluster league performances.  Ramos was put out of his misery 9 matches into the 2008-09 season with a record of 2 draws and 7 losses.  The reasons for what was ultimately a disaster were manifold, but many of the key ingredients are at play at City:  1) A new foreign manager unused to the style of football being played.  2) Said manager also doesn’t speak the language and has a British heavy squad (City less so than Spurs but there are the likes of Given, Bellamy, Lescott, Barry, Ireland, Bridge and Wright-Philips).  3) Handfuls of new players at every position.  4) Heavy investment yielding unreasonable fan expectations for instant success.  5) An accomplished big brother to envy (in Spurs’ case, it was, and still is The Arsenal; for City, it’s obviously Man Utd.).    

If I were a City fan, I would also be wary of Mancini’s ability to hold the volatile pieces in place.  One only has to closely examine Mancini’s supposedly glossy pedigree to find a sheep in wolves’ clothing.  Though he boasts three Scudetto (the Italian league’s version of the Lombardi trophy) with Inter Milan, the substance behind those victories can only be described as suspect.  In 2006, Inter actually finished the season in third, 11 points back of top spot.  They were only handed the crown after their two main rivals, Juventus and AC Milan, were convicted of referee tampering in the Calciopoli scandal.  The fallout of that scandal also benefited Mancini the following season; Juventus were relegated to Serie B and Milan were docked 15 points, making 2007 essentially a non-competition. 

Moreover, his record in Europe is less than glowing.  In three attempts, Mancini’s expensively assembled side only made it past the first knockout stage once, falling in the quarterfinals in 2006 and these failures led to his eventual dismissal at the end of the 2008 campaign.  What has he been up to since?  Sharpening his trade?  Scouting talent?  Learning English?  Nope, none of the above.  Up until a week ago, he was waiting to sort out compensation for his dismissal.  
Mark Hughes spent the last 16 months trying, and failing, to get the most out of his players.  While he may have not been the right man, there have to be question marks about City’s new hire, who has spent the last 16 months trying, and failing, to get the most out of his former employer.  City fans will hope that their new owners’ seemingly rash decision will turn out to be the stroke of genius that saw the Premier League’s previous nouveau riche, Chelsea, land Jose Mourinho.  But if history tells us anything, City will ultimately be more familiar with the fate of another London club. 

And frankly, as an Arsenal fan, I don’t mind that all.    

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